Time: 2019/1/28 14:54:59 Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Network Author: Views: 2 times

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2018 brought many ups and downs for the PV industry, including Sections 201 and 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, China’s “531 New Deal”, India’s special protection tariffs, and the EU’s termination of the mortgage insurance program. Extreme uncertainty across the industry affects every link in the PV supply chain. However, overall market conditions will improve in 2019, with demand reaching new highs throughout the year.

 

Newly installed PV capacity in 2018 was 103GW

 

EnergyTrend analyst Rhea Tsao said that in 2018, China's "531 New Deal" must have had an impact on the photovoltaic industry; however, this impact was partially offset by growing demand from overseas markets and was not as severe as initially expected. By the end of 2018, demand in the industry did not drop as sharply as expected. It is estimated that in 2018, new photovoltaic power generation capacity increased by 4.9% year-on-year to 103GW.

 

EU market with strong demand growth

 

In 2019, driven by encouraging policies and more competitive product prices, new grid-connected power generation capacity is expected to reach a new high of 111.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in 2019. In particular, the EU market has seen a recovery since 2018 with the implementation of the Paris Agreement and module prices falling. In 2019, the EU is expected to see the fastest growth in demand, with the potential to exceed 50%.

 

15GW market in 2019

 

From 2018,solar energyThe scale of power generation will stabilize between 100GW and 120GW, with an annual volatility of less than 10%. According to EnergyTrend's latest market demand report, the number of GW-scale markets will increase from 6 in 2016 to 15 in 2019, indicating that the global market will continue to become more fragmented.

 

By 2019, China and the United States will become the two largest PV markets in the world, while India will become the third largest country in terms of demand for recovery, and Japan will be the fourth largest country. After 2019, India is most likely to foresee a greater increase in demand due to a favorable environment and encouraging policies set by local governments.

 

Solar boom in the Middle East

 

Other emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, started 2018. Demand in the Middle East is expected to grow by around 100% year-on-year in 2018, and will grow further in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of around 50%.

 

Single silicon wafers will become mainstream supply

 

While the entire PV supply chain suffered from low margins and oversupply in 2018, Tier 1 companies still reported strong operating results, mainly due to their advanced technologies, competitive cost structures and broad global distribution. Most of their capacity expansion plans can still be implemented. As a result, upstream companies continue to become more concentrated.

 

According to the data, China's five largest polysilicon suppliers are expected to release new capacity in the second quarter of 2019, which will then contribute 70% of the total global supply. The cost of cash they have will also become more competitive. As for wafer suppliers, Longi and Zhonghuan Semiconductor, which mainly provide monofilament wafers, will dominate the wafer market. As monocrystalline silicon wafers become mainstream and account for 60% of annual wafer supply in 2019, their supply chain will play a more dominant role in the market. This will also reverse the situation in which polysilicon products have become more competitive than monosilicon products in recent years, and will phase out polysilicon manufacturers that are less competitive in the market.

 

Prices will fall further

 

EnergyTrend believes that the photovoltaic industry faces several key challenges and restructuring in 2018. As the market develops, the industry is expected to become healthier and more stable in the long run. The PV industry is expected to approach grid parity with reduced subsidies as prices continue to fall across the supply chain. The spread of non-subsidized systems and the actual unified cost of electricity will be the price indicator for future supply chains.